Advertisement 1

LARSON: Can Mexicans finally exceed expectations in World Cup Group F?

Article content

GROUP F

GERMANY

QUALIFIED: Finished 1st in UEFA Group C, ahead of Northern Ireland, Czech Rep., Norway.

FIFA WORLD RANKING: No. 1

Article content

BEST FINISH: Champions (1954, ’74, ’90, 2014)

MANAGER: Joachim Low – The German bench boss has guided Die Mannschaft to an astonishing five World Cup and European semifinals since taking over in 2006.

BEST PLAYER: Thomas Muller – Perhaps the most dynamic striker in the competition, Muller’s versatility is underrated when he’s compared to top forwards in this competition. What I like about the 28-year-old Bayern Munich attacker is he’s essentially a utility man with a nose for goal – an extremely rare combination. Ask coach Low and he’d probably tell you he’s comfortable playing Muller just about anywhere. Simply put: Good footballers are good footballers. Muller can play wide, centrally or with his back to goal. He’s unselfish but also ruthless when he’s inside the penalty area. While others point to Toni Kroos as being Germany’s top player, Muller is the guy I enjoy watching.

Advertisement 2
Story continues below
Article content

OUTLOOK: The Germans didn’t just dominate UEFA World Cup qualifying. They did things that have never been done for. Die Mannschaft scored a record 43 goals on the way to a perfect 10-0-0 record in UEFA Group C, and conceded just four goals along the way. We expect the reigning World Cup holders to win. We didn’t necessarily expect them to make the rest of UEFA look third class. One of the best way of explaining Germany’s quality is to look at the players Low left off his squad. The Germans could bring three teams to Russia and all three would make the quarterfinals. Germany didn’t bring Manchester City attacker Leroy Sane or Mario Gotze, the man who scored the game-winning goal in the 2014 final. Germany enjoys the deepest roster the world has known. But will it once again with the best?

BEST-CASE SCENARIO: Champions

WORST-CASE SCENARIO: An opening match loss or draw with dark horse Mexico could see Germany meet Brazil in the second round.

LARSON’S PREDICTION: Finalists

MEXICO

QUALIFIED: Finished 1st in CONCACAF qualifying, ahead of Costa Rica, Panama, Honduras and the U.S.

Advertisement 3
Story continues below
Article content

FIFA WORLD RANKING: No. 15

BEST FINISH: Quarterfinal (1970, ’86)

MANAGER: Juan Carlos Osorio – The Colombian has had three stints in Major League Soccer with the New York Metrostars, Chicago Fire and New York Red Bulls.

BEST PLAYER: Javier Hernandez – Beloved by Mexican fans, Chicharito enters what’s likely his last World Cup chasing a deep run with a Mexican side that could either make the semifinals or crash out of the tournament. The 30-year-old striker has made a living – at Manchester United, Real Madrid, Bayern Leverkusen and West Ham United – as a pure poacher, a player who could have little impact on the game for 89 minutes until he converts the only chance he needs. Hernandez has a remarkable strike rate for Mexico, scoring in roughly half of his appearances since 2009. While he’s gone quiet in recent years, Mexican supporters have belief in a player who always seems to score timely goals at the international level.

OUTLOOK: It could go either way for Mexico. The Germans, of course, will run away with the GroupF, but anything can happen after that. While I think Mexico is one of the top-15 sides in the tournament, Sweden could be an awkward matchup. The Mexicans always struggle against big, organized sides intent on sitting back and either counter-attacking or stealing a goal on a set place. That’s Sweden. Still, the Mexicans are more the capable of breaking down any opponent. Providing Hernandez service are the likes of Raul Jimenez (Benfica), Carlos Vela (Los Angeles FC), Hirving Lozano (PSV) and Oribe Peralta (America) – a foursome with loads of big game and international experience. This is likely it for a number long time Mexican players, a golden generation, who enter this tournament at the peak of their careers. Andres Guardado (Betis), Giovani dos Santos (LA Galaxy), Marco Fabian (Frankfurt) and Hector Herrera (Porto) will be on the other side of 30 come Qatar 2022. This is their last attempt at a deep run.

Advertisement 4
Story continues below
Article content

BEST-CASE SCENARIO: Semifinals

WORST-CASE SCENARIO: Mexico can’t afford to enter the final day of group play needing a win vs. Sweden.

LARSON’S PREDICTION: Round of 16 loss to Brazil.

SWEDEN

QUALIFIED: Defeated Italy 1-0 on aggregate in a UEFA playoff series.

FIFA WORLD RANKING: No. 24

BEST FINISH: Third place (1950, ’94)

MANAGER: Janne Andersson – Has spent his entire 30-year coaching career managing in Sweden.

BEST PLAYER: Emil Forsberg – The 26-year-old RB Leipzig attacker takes charge of a team without Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who this week slammed Swedish media for suggesting the blue and yellow are better without him. So, attention turns to Forsberg, who has more than held his own in the Bundesliga since moving to Germany from Malmo in 2015. On a side historically bereft of attacking options, Forsberg is the kind of player who can make something happen in the final third. His ability to play on the half-turn makes him a threat to run at defenders and create scoring opportunities. Forsberg is the kind of player who can make the difference for Sweden in a tight affair – something Ibrahimovic provided before his departure.

Advertisement 5
Story continues below
Article content

OUTLOOK: Bet against Sweden at your own peril. The blue and yellow finished second in a difficult UEFA qualifying group containing France, the Netherlands and Bulgaria, conceding less than a goal-per-game in the process. After that, Sweden held Italy goalless in a playoff series that denied the Azzurri a place at the finals for the first time in a half-century. The Swedes aren’t necessarily master tacticians, but they typically play within themselves and stick to what they’re good at: Organized defending. The fact Sweden defeated France and outlasted the Dutch in qualifying tells me they can snag a result on any given day. The fight for second place in GroupF very well could come down to a Matchday 3 meeting with Mexico. Don’t bet against the stubborn Swedes if that happens.

BEST-CASE SCENARIO: Round of 16 loss to Brazil.

WORST-CASE SCENARIO: Third-place finish in GroupF.

LARSON’S PREDICTION: I want to pick them to advance at Mexico’s expense, but I’m not going to.

SOUTH KOREA

QUALIFIED: Finished 2nd in AFC Group A qualifying, behind Iran.

FIFA WORLD RANKING: No. 57

Advertisement 6
Story continues below
Article content

BEST FINISH: Fourth place (2002)

MANAGER – Shin Tae-yong – The ex-Korean  midfielder played a dozen years with Seongnam FC of the K League.

BEST PLAYER: Son Heung-min – The 25-year-old Tottenham attacker is the brightest light on weak South Korean side that struggled in what should have been a fairly straightforward qualifying cycle. Son is one of just two South Korean players currently competing in any of Europe’s big leagues. In Son, the Koreans have at least one player capable of making something happen in the final third, where they struggled during the final round of AFC qualifying. Son finds the most joy when he’s able to find possession in wide area before isolating opposing defenders and producing an attempt at goal or a cross. If Portugal has Cristiano Ronaldo. South Korea has the man they call “Sonaldo.”

OUTLOOK: Not good. This is the weakest South Korean side we’ve seen at a World Cup in quite some time. And they’ve landed in a group with three superior teams with more talent all over the park. South Korea enters this tournament following a loss to Bosnia and Herzegovina and a draw against Bolivia. The Taegeuk Warriors finished well off the pace in AFC qualifying and almost failed to achieve automatic qualification. What’s more, South Korea finished with a lacklustre plus-1 goal differential in qualifying group that contained Qatar, a side they fell to 3-2 in qualifying – something that never would have happened in previous World Cup cycles.

Advertisement 7
Story continues below
Article content

BEST-CASE SCENARIO: Round of 16.

WORST-CASE SCENARIO: South Korea could lose all three games during the group stage.

LARSON’S PREDICTION: Last in GroupF.

AND ANOTHER THING …

Mexico isn’t used to partying after World Cups.

So, they reportedly partied before departing for Russia – with escorts.

Several members of the Mexican national team were rebuked last week after multiple reports stated members of the team threw an epic bender with dozens of women.

The party reportedly took place following Mexico’s 1-0 win over Scotland in Mexico City, the night before El Tri were scheduled to depart for Europe.

Some Mexican supporters voiced their displeasure, claiming some of El Tri’s biggest stars have lost focus ahead of another major tournament.

The Mexican Football Federation responded before the weekend, saying the players were given the night off to do as they pleased – the implication being the players can do what they want on personal time.

If El Tri performs up to expectations this month none of it will matter.

That said, the Mexicans have fallen short of reaching the quarterfinals at each of the previous six World Cups, despite advancing beyond the group stage at every tournament since 1994 – which is no easy feat.

Advertisement 8
Story continues below
Article content

And they were a questionable PK decision in favour of the Netherlands in 2014 from potentially reaching the quarterfinals in Brazil.

Seven players remain from Mexico’s 2012 Olympic gold medal squad, a golden generation of talent who were supposed to deliver far more than they have.

Hector Herrera, Marco Fabian, Oribe Peralta, Giovani dos Santos, Javier Aquino and Raul Jimenez have been featuring alongside each other in Mexico’s attack for close to a decade.

They’ve reached Confederation Cup semifinals and played in the knockout phase of the Copa America. They’ve dominated CONCACAF for a decade and won everything there is to win within the region.

The question for Mexico in 2018 is whether a bounce will go their way.

Can they find that extra bit of quality to survive an early test against Germany?

If it can’t, the problem for Mexico becomes a likely second round meeting with Brazil.

But Mexico is one of the few teams in the world capable of knocking off a World Cup contender on any given day.

They’re the truest dark horse among a litter of supposed “dark horses” that actually have little chance of reaching the quarterfinals.

Advertisement 9
Story continues below
Article content

Peru and Iceland have been mentioned as sexy Cinderella picks in this tournament.

Neither will advance from their respective groups.

I’ll take Mexico and the confidence it plays with on any given day against most teams.

El Tri is fearless in the way they go about pouring numbers forward.

Don’t be surprised if they are just as eager to party post-tournament as they were before Russia 2018.

GROUP F FIXTURE LIST

June 17 – Germany v. Mexico – Moscow

June 18 – Sweden v. South Korea – Nizhny Novgorod

June 23 – South Korea v. Mexico – Rostov-on-Don

June 23 – Germany v. Sweden – Sochi

June 27 – South Korea v. Germany – Kazan

June 27 – Mexico v. Sweden – Yekaterinburg

THREE TO WATCH

Carlos Vela – The 29-year-old Mexican has been excellent during his time with MLS expansion side Los Angeles FC. The question is whether MLS success can translate at the World Cup.

Timo Werner – The 22-year-old German striker draws in while coach Joachim Low decided to leave Mario Gotze and Leroy Sane at home.

Toni Kroos – The 28-year-old German midfielder is the defending champs’ metronome, who plays among the top players in the world at Real Madrid. His importance gets lost in a Who’s Who roster of world class footballers.

Advertisement 10
Story continues below
Article content

LARSON’S LOWDOWN

*Predicted order of finish in Group F

1 Germany

2 Mexico

3 Sweden

4 South Korea

Rationale: It’s battle for second in a group headed by the defending world champions. Although I think Sweden’s professionalism will frustrate Mexico for long stretches when they meet on  the final Matchday, El Tri arguably boasts as much experience as any other side in the tournament.

DID YOU KNOW?

Mexico’s Rafa Marquez, 39, is set to appear at his fifth World Cup, joining countryman Antonio Carbajal, Lothar Matthaeus (Germany) and Gianluigi Buffon (Italy) as the only players to appear at five World Cup finals.

FIFA World Cup 2018 – Outright Winner 

*Odds from Bodog

Brazil                            9/2

Germany                       19/4

Spain                            6/1

France                          13/2

Argentina                      19/2

Belgium                        12/1

England                        18/1

Uruguay                        25/1

Portugal                        28/1

Croatia                          33/1

Colombia                      40/1

Russia                          50/1

Poland                          80/1

Denmark                       100/1

Mexico                         100/1

Switzerland                   100/1

Sweden                        150/1

Senegal                        150/1

Egypt                           150/1

Iceland                          200/1

Serbia                           200/1

Japan                           200/1

Nigeria                          200/1

Peru                             200/1

Costa Rica                    300/1

Australia                       300/1

Iran                               500/1

Morocco                       500/1

South Korea                  500/1

Tunisia                          500/1

Panama                        1000/1

Saudi Arabia                 1000/1

Article content
Comments
You must be logged in to join the discussion or read more comments.
Join the Conversation

Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion. Please keep comments relevant and respectful. Comments may take up to an hour to appear on the site. You will receive an email if there is a reply to your comment, an update to a thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. Visit our Community Guidelines for more information.

This Week in Flyers